NATO leaders are due to meet in Ankara next week for a summit shaped by mounting questions over the alliance’s cohesion and the future of the U.S. role in European security. President Donald Trump is expected to join 31 other leaders in Turkey as European members try to demonstrate that they are increasing defence spending and taking on a larger share of the burden while Washington reduces some of its commitments to NATO. Leaders are also expected to reaffirm support for Ukraine, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy set to attend a dinner hosted by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who is also expected to hold bilateral talks with Trump.
The gathering comes after a turbulent year for the alliance. Tensions have been sharpened by Trump’s criticism of NATO, his threat to take Greenland from fellow member Denmark, and fallout from the U.S. war against Iran, which European officials say was launched without consultation and damaged transatlantic ties. The United States has also announced troop withdrawals from Europe, reduced forces assigned to NATO defence plans, including an aircraft carrier, refuelling aircraft, fighter jets and drones, and begun a six-month review of its military presence on the continent. Trump underscored his complaints in a recent Truth Social post, saying the United States was spending money to protect NATO members without sufficient benefit.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has argued that the Ankara summit will show Europe and Canada are responding to long-standing U.S. demands for greater burden-sharing. He has said the meeting will focus on converting higher spending into deployable military capability and expanding the defence industrial base, with arms agreements worth tens of billions of dollars expected to be signed. Rutte said NATO’s European members and Canada spent $90 billion more on defence in 2025 than the previous year, taking the total above $570 billion. He has also emphasized that NATO remains vital to U.S. security and said European allies and Canada are assuming greater responsibility for conventional defence in Europe. In an opinion article, Rutte further argued that the transatlantic alliance remains the essential framework linking North America and Europe and enabling U.S. power projection from European bases.
Even so, uncertainty hangs over the summit. European officials say they hope Trump’s relationships with Erdogan and Rutte will help keep proceedings on track, but they remain wary that bitterness over Iran could resurface or that any renewed flare-up in that conflict could dominate the meeting. One European diplomat described the alliance as still functioning but bruised, while a senior NATO diplomat said leaders understood the stakes and voiced optimism that open confrontation could be avoided. NATO officials have also noted that most allies allowed the United States to use their airspace and bases during the Iran conflict, even though the war was unpopular across much of Europe and not backed by many European leaders. The summit follows last year’s agreement in The Hague to raise core defence spending targets to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, alongside an additional 1.5% for broader defence-related investment such as cybersecurity.
